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| Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
From: Muftah
The assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey on Monday, December 19, was shocking in its brazenness. In light of often tense relations between the two countries, it was also unnerving. Almost immediately, speculation about a new world war began circulating.
Perhaps at no other time in recent history, however, have Turkey and Russia stood as little of a chance of going to war, as now. Just a year ago, this was not the case.
In November 2015, Turkish F-16s downed a Russian fighter jet over northern Syria. Turkey claimed the pilot had crossed the Turkish border and received numerous radio warnings from Turkish military, before being shot down. The pilot of the Russian jet, as well as a Russian marine sent to rescue him were killed. Russia took these events very seriously, particularly since Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refused to apologize for the incident for several months.
This summer, the two countries began to step away from the diplomatic precipice. In the wake of the July 15 coup attempt in Turkey, Erdogan changed his rhetoric about the jet’s downing. Now, he blamed the incident on a rogue Turkish pilot who was allegedly a follower of Fethullah Gulen. Gulen is the exiled leader of a religious organization and was once allied with, but is now opposed to, the ruling Turkish government. Erdogan has blamed Gulen and his followers for instigating the failed coup.
Immediately after the assassination, Turkey made various conciliatory overtures to Russia. Erdogan personally called President Vladimir Putin to inform him of the incident and promised Russia would be allowed to participate in Turkey’s investigation into the assassination. At the same time, the Turkish government almost immediately blamed Gulen and his followers for the ambassador’s murder. Unlike the jet downing, it was relatively easy for Turkey to distance itself from the incident, since the assassination could not be directly tied to any direct orders from the Turkish government.
It is in Turkey’s immediate interest to prevent its relationship with Russia from turning sour. Before the assassination, Turkey, Russia, and Iran had scheduled negotiations to address the ongoing war in Syria. Out of the three countries, Turkey had the most to gain from a successful summit and much to lose, if it was canceled or postponed. Turkey has taken in millions of Syrian refugees and suffered numerous terrorist attacks, as a result of the war’s spillover across its southern border. Thanks to Turkey’s quick and diplomatic response to the assassination, the negotiations did, in fact, take place on Tuesday, the day after the assassination.
While Turkey’s response to the assassination was unsurprising, I was fascinated by how measured and calm Russia’s response was. Like any good student, I decided to ask my former professor, Karl Qualls, to weigh in. Professor Qualls teaches history at Dickinson College and is an expert on Russia. In this interview, we discuss how Russia views its relationship with Turkey, the ever-present specter of Fethullah Gulen, and the likelihood Russia and Turkey will remain on good terms in the short-term.
Claire Sadar (CS): Why was there such a contrast between Russia’s response to this incident and the downing of one its jets by Turkey over Syria about a year ago? Is it the shifting geopolitical landscape or are there other factors at play?
Karl Qualls (KQ): I think the rapprochement after the shoot-down has repaired relations to some degree. I think there is also a perceived difference between the downing of Russian military might and the assassination of a public official in an art gallery. Turkish security officials will come under scrutiny, but the willingness and ability to shoot down a Russian jet is humbling and humiliating.
Both countries understand there are mutual economic benefits to being friends rather than foes. Both also have a mutual interest in fighting terrorism and in re-establishing stability in countries near their borders. Russia has played this well; it has been carving NATO and EU countries away in a series of bilateral agreements and negotiations. It is quite clear that Turkey is not moving into the EU any time soon, so a closer relation to Russia could make sense. We might be seeing a change in the balance of power in international diplomacy, which has been one of Putin’s strategic aims. He has been vocal in denouncing the West’s dismissal of Russia after 1991. He blames the United States in particular for unilateralism after the Cold War and for the massive destabilization in north Africa and the Middle East. He wants Russia to be a central player again. The Iran-Russia-Turkey talks this week on Aleppo have done just that.
Turkey is clearly the subordinate player in this relationship, but what does Russia have to gain by strengthening its ties with the Turkish government?
KQ: Russia sees in Turkey, as well as in Iran, a new regional partner that now places Moscow at the center of Middle East diplomacy, unseating the United States and Saudi Arabia. If this relationship holds, Turkey can be a growing economic partner and a transit country for Russian fossil fuels to Europe.
How will/how is the Russian government reacting to Turkey’s decision to blame Fethullah Gulen for the assassination? Do you expect Russian investigators will back the Turkish government’s claims?
KQ: Russia is already responding hesitantly to Erdogan’s knee-jerk scapegoating. Could Gulen have been involved? Possibly. But Putin will want to find the real culprit so he can exact revenge. Gulen is obviously a convenient target for Erdogan, but Putin could care less about Gulen unless he threatens Russia. The Kremlin has already stated it wants to get to the bottom of the incident, to understand if this was a lone wolf attack or a larger conspiracy and whether there are other assaults being planned against Russian interests.
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